October 2025 was already shaping up to be a huge month for retirees and workers keeping an eye on Washington. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is set to announce its official 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 15—the single most important day of the year for millions of Americans who depend on monthly checks. That announcement will also include a slate of rule changes that could affect retirement planning, disability benefits, and possibly even the debate over raising the retirement age.
But the backdrop is complicated. Congress is mired in budget fights, and a federal government shutdown has thrown much of Washington into standby mode. That means while benefit checks continue, many other federal services have slowed or stalled. For households already anxious about inflation, healthcare costs, and retirement security, the timing couldn’t be worse.
The Retirement Age Debate Heats Up
For years, lawmakers have quietly floated raising the full retirement age (FRA) beyond the current 67 for younger generations. With Social Security’s trust fund projected to face shortfalls in the early 2030s, proposals to push the FRA to 68 or 69 have resurfaced.
October 15 won’t decide that issue outright, but analysts expect the SSA and White House to acknowledge the retirement age debate more directly this year. “The government is being forced to come clean,” one policy analyst told me. “They can’t dodge this conversation much longer.”
October 15: Why It Matters
The COLA announcement is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2025, inflation cooled compared to 2022’s highs, but prices for essentials like food, rent, and medical care remain elevated.
- COLA 2026 projection: Analysts expect an increase in the 2–2.5% range.
- Impact: For the average Social Security retiree benefit (currently about $1,940/month), that’s an increase of roughly $40–$50 per month starting in January 2026.
- SSI beneficiaries: Adjustments will also raise Supplemental Security Income maximums for individuals and couples.
It may not sound huge, but for fixed-income seniors, even modest bumps help cover groceries, prescriptions, and heating bills.
Government Shutdown: What’s Still Running, What’s Not
Despite the budget chaos, Social Security and VA benefits are classified as mandatory spending, which means checks will not stop. But beyond that, the shutdown has slowed or frozen large parts of the federal government. Here’s where things stand in plain English:
| Agency | What Keeps Running | What Slows Down or Stops |
|---|---|---|
| SSA | Social Security and SSI checks keep coming | Field office staffing is reduced; expect delays for claims and customer service |
| IRS | Tax collection and online payments continue | Refunds, audits, and helplines delayed |
| Dept. of Education | Loan payments and grants continue | Student aid support lines and assistance slow down |
| Army Corps of Engineers | Emergency dam/flood response continues | New projects and maintenance paused |
| DHS | Border patrol, TSA, immigration enforcement continue | Many work without pay, risking morale |
| HHS | Medicare, Medicaid, hospitals remain open | Admin and support services slowed |
| VA | VA hospitals and benefits continue | Paperwork and admin delayed |
| Dept. of Labor | Unemployment benefits continue | Workplace inspections reduced |
| DOJ | FBI, prisons, counterterrorism continue | Civil cases, hearings delayed |
| Dept. of Defense | Troops keep working | Many civilian workers furloughed; paychecks could be delayed |
| Treasury | Debt payments continue | Economic reports delayed |
| EPA | Emergency response continues | Inspections, cleanups, research paused |
| Commerce | National Weather Service runs | Census and economic reports delayed |
| NASA | ISS operations continue | Research and educational programs paused |
| Trade Office | Global obligations met | Enforcement, negotiations slowed |
| SBA | Loan approvals delayed | – |
| State Dept. | Passports/visas continue with fee funding | Could slow if shutdown drags on |
FAQs:
Will Social Security checks stop during the government shutdown?
No. Social Security, SSI, Medicare, and VA benefits continue as scheduled.
What is happening on October 15, 2025?
The SSA will announce the 2026 COLA increase and other rule changes affecting benefits.
How much will Social Security benefits increase in 2026?
Analysts expect around a 2–2.5% bump, or $40–$50 more per month for the average retiree.
