If the federal government shutdown continues past October 15, 2025, it could delay—but not cancel—the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement. Here’s what retirees and beneficiaries need to know if the stalemate in Washington drags on:
1. The COLA Will Still Be Calculated—But the Announcement Could Be Delayed
Even during a shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues publishing inflation data because it’s considered an essential function.
That means the CPI-W report for September 2025—the final data needed to calculate the COLA—should still be released on time.
However, the SSA’s official announcement, originally set for October 15, could be postponed if non-essential staff responsible for communications, press releases, and systems updates are furloughed.
In short: the math will be ready, but the public announcement might have to wait until after government operations resume.
2. Social Security Payments Will Continue
Even in a shutdown, Social Security and SSI benefits will still go out as scheduled.
That’s because these payments are funded through trust funds, not annual congressional appropriations.
However, you may experience longer wait times for customer service, appeals, or updates to your records since many SSA field offices and call centers will have reduced staff.
3. Medicare and Other Linked Programs Stay Operational
Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP (food assistance) are all considered essential services, meaning they’ll continue during a shutdown.
However, new applications or appeals for these programs could move slower than usual due to staffing limits.
4. What Retirees Should Expect
If the shutdown delays the COLA announcement, here’s what typically happens:
- The SSA will issue the official COLA figures as soon as it’s legally permitted to resume normal communications.
- Once finalized, COLA increases will still begin in January 2026, even if the announcement comes late.
- Beneficiaries do not need to take any action—the adjustment will be applied automatically.
5. How a Prolonged Shutdown Could Complicate Things
A short shutdown (a few days or weeks) won’t impact payments or the COLA rollout timeline much.
But if it extends for multiple months, it could:
- Delay benefit letters showing new 2026 payment amounts.
- Postpone online updates to SSA accounts.
- Slow down customer service and appeals response times.
FAQs:
When will the 2026 Social Security COLA be announced?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is scheduled to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 15, 2025. However, if the federal government shutdown continues, the announcement could be delayed until normal operations resume.
What is the expected COLA for 2026?
Economists and analysts, including The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), project a 2.7% COLA for 2026 — slightly higher than the 2.5% increase in 2025.
How much will benefits increase?
The average retired worker currently receives about $2,005 per month.
With a 2.7% COLA, that would rise to roughly $2,059 per month — an increase of about $54.
The exact amount will vary based on each person’s benefit level.
