Circle October 15, 2025 on your calendar — that’s when the Social Security Administration (SSA) is scheduled to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), assuming the federal government shutdown ends before then. For retirees watching their budgets tighten with every grocery run, this update could make a meaningful difference.
Economists and policy analysts already have a strong sense of what’s coming, thanks to the first two inflation reports of the summer. Both the Social Security Board of Trustees and The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) are forecasting a 2.7% COLA for 2026, just above this year’s 2.5% adjustment.
That modest bump may not sound like much, but for the average retiree, it’s a lifeline—another small shield against rising living costs.
What Is COLA and Why It Matters
Since 1975, Social Security benefits have been automatically adjusted each year to keep up with inflation, using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
This index tracks the prices of over 200 goods and services—from groceries and utilities to medical care—and calculates how much the average worker’s cost of living has changed. When prices rise, so do benefits.
Without COLA, retirees would lose purchasing power quickly, especially in years like 2022–2023, when inflation surged well above 7%.
Forecast: 2.7% COLA for 2026
Based on the latest CPI-W data through August, most analysts expect the 2026 COLA to land around 2.7%, marking a slight uptick from this year’s 2.5% increase.
That may sound modest, but the impact adds up across millions of retirees.
| Year | COLA | Average Monthly Benefit | Increase from Previous Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.2% | $1,907 | +$59 |
| 2025 | 2.5% | $2,005 | +$50 |
| 2026 (Projected) | 2.7% | $2,059 | +$54 |
If the 2.7% projection holds, the average retired worker will see their monthly Social Security check rise from $2,005 to $2,059—an increase of about $648 per year.
While that doesn’t erase the impact of years of high inflation, it does help retirees stay roughly on pace with current price trends.
How COLA Is Calculated
The Social Security Administration determines each year’s COLA by comparing the average CPI-W for the third quarter (July, August, and September) of the current year with that of the prior year.
If the average CPI-W is higher, benefits rise by the same percentage. If it’s flat or lower, benefits remain unchanged.
This year’s September inflation report, due in early October, will finalize the math—and then the SSA will make its official announcement on October 15.
Who Benefits—and How Much
While the average benefit will rise about $54 per month, the actual dollar increase varies by recipient:
- Single retirees receiving $1,500/month now would get about $1,540 after the COLA.
- Couples drawing $3,200 combined would see that grow to roughly $3,286.
- Disabled workers and survivor beneficiaries will also receive proportional adjustments.
Keep in mind: Medicare premiums—typically deducted directly from Social Security checks—could offset part of the increase. Analysts expect a modest Medicare Part B premium hike in 2026, potentially trimming a few dollars off the net benefit gain.
Why a 2.7% Increase Feels Smaller Than It Looks
Even with COLAs, retirees have lost about 40% of their purchasing power since 2000, according to TSCL’s annual “Loss of Buying Power” report.
That’s because seniors spend more on healthcare, housing, and utilities—areas where inflation often outpaces general price levels. So while COLA keeps checks rising, it doesn’t always fully cover what retirees are actually paying out.
Still, in an economy where essentials remain expensive, even a small raise helps keep households afloat.
What Happens If the Government Shutdown Continues?
If the shutdown stretches past mid-October, the SSA may delay the official COLA announcement. Benefit payments, however, will continue uninterrupted—Social Security is considered an essential service.
Once operations resume, the agency will release the finalized adjustment immediately, and payments reflecting the new rate will start in January 2026.
FAQs:
When will the 2026 COLA be announced?
The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce it on October 15, 2025, assuming the government shutdown ends.
What is the expected COLA percentage for 2026?
Analysts project a 2.7% increase in benefits.
How much will the average Social Security check rise?
Roughly $54 more per month, bringing the average benefit to about $2,059.
